«Հակահայկական սցենարը ջախջախել» - Կարեն ԱՂԵԿՅԱՆ, Հրաչյա ԱՐԶՈՒՄԱՆՅԱՆ

The article by Karen Aghekyan and Hrachya Arzumanyan is devoted to analyzing the strategic miscalculations of the Armenian World in defending the interests of the Armenian population of Javakhk, and to elaborating principles for effectively countering the unfavorable scenario of developments in the region.

Introduction and Methodology

The material is an excerpt from the forthcoming third volume of the "Pro Patria" series (ed. Armen Ayvazyan), devoted to the Javakhk issue. The authors proceed from the thesis of the traditional political weakness of the Armenian Nation as a subject incapable of formulating a unified, realistic, and effective regional strategy. The methodological framework is built on comparing historical experience — the catastrophe of the Armenian liberation movement in the Ottoman Empire and the hard-won victory in Artsakh — with the current situation surrounding Javakhk, while the authors caution against direct analogies, insisting only on the existence of universal patterns in national-political struggle.

Key Proposition: The Repetition of Historical Mistakes

The central thesis of the article is the Armenian Nation's tendency to provoke maximum mobilization of the adversary instead of mobilizing its own forces. The structural causes cited are:

linking the national struggle to the policies of the great powers;
relying on international resonance instead of real results;
loud declarations unsupported by action;
the perception of Armenians as a "fifth column" of an external enemy.

These same patterns, in the authors' view, have been reproduced in Javakhk, where the struggle for the Russian military base in Akhalkalaki was mistakenly turned into the core of the national movement — despite the obvious predetermination of the base's withdrawal and the full solidarity of Georgian society on this matter.

Uncertainty of the Movement's Goals

The authors note the absence, among the Javakhk Armenians and the Armenian Nation as a whole, of a clearly formulated ultimate goal — whether autonomy, independence, cultural autonomy, or economic integration. This uncertainty gives rise to internal struggle and allows opponents to portray Armenian demands as radical and separatist.

A Systemic Error: Confrontation with Globalization

A separate section is devoted to criticizing the isolationist reaction of part of the patriotic forces to the processes of globalization, in particular their opposition to communication projects (Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan, Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum, the Kars-Akhalkalaki-Tbilisi railway). The authors argue that openness of communications has become an axiom of the contemporary world paradigm, and resistance to it is perceived by the international community as an anachronism, placing the Armenian Nation in a hopelessly losing position.

Proposed Strategy

Instead of confrontation, the following is proposed:

to secure the inclusion of the Armenian side in regional projects through expanding, rather than obstructing, their implementation;
to conduct a systemic "political campaign" involving the diaspora and the authorities of the Republic of Armenia;
to prevent the realization of the adversary's scenario — the provocation of terrorist acts, the equating of Artsakh and Javakhk, the involvement of Armenia in the conflict, or a split between Javakhk and Yerevan.

Conclusion

The article's key conclusion is the necessity of critically rethinking the predominantly negative historical experience of the Armenian Nation in order to develop an effective, offensive strategy — rather than a defensive-isolationist one — capable of "riding" globalization instead of opposing it, as the only way to dismantle the hostile scenario prepared against the Armenian population of Javakhk.